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Hindsight Bias

3. Hindsight bias

Hindsight Bias causes us to claim that “we knew it all along.”

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In Short: Regardless of whether a decision does or doesn’t work out, Hindsight Bias causes us to tell ourselves that some part of us knew what was going to happen. Again, it’s a way of maintaining an inflated self-opinion — if we knew it was going to happen, we don’t have to think of ourselves as flawed.

For Example: At the annual horse races in Saratoga Springs, a neophyte bettor whimsically picks a long-shot horse based its comical name. When “David Hasselhoofs” unexpectedly beats the field by five lengths, Hindsight Bias makes him exclaim, “I KNEW that horse would win!”

Next: Confirmation Bias

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