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Answers & Observations

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Stocks rally 43% in 50 trading days. Are all our problems solved?

Webinar replay:

(30 minutes)

On Friday, the US Labor department released unemployment numbers that were "less bad" than had been expected. Confounding expectations of 20% unemployment or higher, US labor markets gained 2.5 million jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 13.3% from 14.7%.

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Before anyone takes a victory lap, remember that unemployment has not been as high as 13.3% since the 1930's. Gains of 2.5 million jobs modestly offset the 21.4 million jobs lost in March and April. Economists suspect that the true unemployment rate is actually 3% higher, but Americans who are furloughed (not working, not receiving pay, still receiving some benefits, expecting to return to work shortly) may not be categorizing themselves as unemployed.

Meanwhile stocks continue to rally, now up 43% from the March 20th low. Pandemic, recession, unemployment, protests, rioting in 100 cities and a monster stock market rally. One of these things is not like the others.

  1. Progression of the Coronavirus Pandemic

  2. Friday's Labor Department Employment Report

  3. The continued baffling rise in the major stock market indexes

and answered questions for 5 minutes.