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We’re cautiously optimistic that Joseph Biden beats Donald Trump, but we won’t know for sure until early in the morning on November 4th, possibly not until later in November or even early December if the election results are a lot closer than we expect.
Here are the critical elements we are watching leading into Tuesday, November 3rd.
Read MoreWow! It's not often that a single announcement can knock a year's return off the stock market in one day, but Trump's address last night accomplished just that. Trump stated that all air travel from Europe (except the UK) would be suspended, along with trade in goods, for 30 days starting Friday night.
Read MoreFor the past several months, US stocks whipsawed with each presidential tweet about whether Trump is adding tariffs or suspending tariffs, talking to the Chinese or ordering US companies out of China. We’ve seen some days where the Dow fell over 800 points, which once upon a time was a big deal, but amounts to a decline of only 3% in a year when the S&P 500 is up 20.6%. When the Dow fell 508 points in October 1987, that was a decline of 22.6% in a day!
Read MoreAfter 6 months of steady gains that took the NASDAQ and S&P 500 to new record highs in late April , we’ve had two and half weeks of sharp declines. Peak to yesterday’s trough was 5% in the S&P 500 and 7% in the NASDAQ. Stocks are recovering somewhat today. YTD the S&P 500 is up 14.5% and the NASDAQ is up 17.3%. Several clients have called or emailed to learn if there is reason for concern.
Read MoreA long time client writes, “No capital gifts this year. Seeing a Dow that is falling like a stone, day after day, does not inspire me. It is acting like 2008 and the economy could not be more polar opposite from 2008.”
Exactly! Yet, US and international stock market performance is the worst since 11 years ago during the 2008-9 financial crisis.
Read MoreA new client writes, “So . . . why should I not sell all the stocks I still have a profit in?”
That is a reasonable question. From the September 20th all-time high, the major averages have taken quite a pounding.
US stocks celebrated the 30th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash by making yet another all time high. US stocks as represented by the S&P 500 are up 16.9% YTD, double our forecast at the start of the year. The S&P 500 made 51 new records so far this year - 25% of trading days.
Read MoreAfter 107 days of the Trump Presidency, we believe that this administration is determined to be the wildest reality TV show of all time. People say, "War is God's way of teaching us geography." Perhaps Donald Trump is God's way of teaching us about the Federal Government?
Read MoreIn April 2014, we wrote:With 0.0% of precincts reporting, CNN declares Hillary Clinton CNN the next president of the United States. Really? We haven't even gotten through the 2014 mid-term elections yet, yet campaigns (and the media circus that lives for campaigns) are already gearing up for 2016.
Read MoreFiveThirtyEight.com was the most conservative, forecasting an electoral split of 272-268 in favor of Clinton with a 66% probability of success. The mood among Republican operatives, even the candidate himself, was despondent. No candidate in modern electoral history who polled so badly post Labor Day had ever won.
Read MoreAt this point, everything that can possibly be said about this election has been said. Whether you dislike Trump more than Clinton, or dislike Clinton more than Trump, the horrible, miserable conclusion is just days away.
Read MoreWe last wrote a market commentary July 11th. Since then, we've had nothing to say as investors focus on the last stage of the US presidential election, excluding any other data points including the US employment situation, US corporate earnings, and US Fed Policy.
Read MoreWe are entertained and informed by looking back at past commentaries to see how our forecasts turned out. What can we learn from predictions that were right (and those that were wrong)?
Read MoreAfter 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows: Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination), Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25, Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination), Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates).
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