Q&A with David Edwards: Should I sell my stock to pay off my mortgage?

Question: I am less than three years away from retirement and have 80% of my stock portfolio in a particular stock which has grown about 30% in the last two years. My mortgage is at 4.4% and my 401(k) is about 1/3 of my total assets (the other 2/3 being stock). I am single with a salary between $100,000 and $150,000. I was thinking of paying off my mortgage by selling about a quarter of that particular stock which would include the capital gains and fees. Is it wise to sell stock at this time to payoff the mortgage?

What a long, strange year it's been!

US stocks celebrated the 30th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash by making yet another all time high. US stocks as represented by the S&P 500 are up 16.9% YTD, double our forecast at the start of the year. The S&P 500 made 51 new records so far this year - 25% of trading days.

Mid Year Review - Slow but Steady?

In our December 2016 year end review we wrote, "No forecast now, no forecast until April. We can't recall another time in the last 30 years that we were so uncertain about what to expect from the US government, and how that would affect the key drivers of stock market returns - revenues, earnings and interest rates.

Implications of the Trump Presidency for US Stocks

After 107 days of the Trump Presidency, we believe that this administration is determined to be the wildest reality TV show of all time. People say, "War is God's way of teaching us geography." Perhaps Donald Trump is God's way of teaching us about the Federal Government?

The 2016 Year in Review

In January 2016, we projected that the S&P 500 would gain 5% for the year, but we noted we would revisit that estimate in July. In July, noting that an earnings recession among US corporations was coming to an end, we elevated our forecast to 10%. For the full year, the S&P 500 rose 12.0%, so close enough. Full details of US and world Indexes are here.

Investing and MarketsDavid EdwardsJanuary 2, 2017Heron WealthInvesting, S&P 500, Strategy Review, David EdwardsComment

Presidential Election Recap, and What Comes Next

In April 2014, we wrote:With 0.0% of precincts reporting, CNN declares Hillary Clinton CNN the next president of the United States. Really? We haven't even gotten through the 2014 mid-term elections yet, yet campaigns (and the media circus that lives for campaigns) are already gearing up for 2016.

Investing and MarketsDavid EdwardsDecember 5, 2016Heron WealthPresidential Election, Trump, Clinton, David EdwardsComment

Confounding All Expectations, Donald J. Trump Elected US President

FiveThirtyEight.com was the most conservative, forecasting an electoral split of 272-268 in favor of Clinton with a 66% probability of success. The mood among Republican operatives, even the candidate himself, was despondent. No candidate in modern electoral history who polled so badly post Labor Day had ever won.

4 Trading Days Till US Presidential Election: We Are NOT Invoking Our Doomsday Plan

At this point, everything that can possibly be said about this election has been said. Whether you dislike Trump more than Clinton, or dislike Clinton more than Trump, the horrible, miserable conclusion is just days away.

US Markets Paralyzed, Await Outcome of US Presidential Election

We last wrote a market commentary July 11th. Since then, we've had nothing to say as investors focus on the last stage of the US presidential election, excluding any other data points including the US employment situation, US corporate earnings, and US Fed Policy.

Investing and MarketsDavid EdwardsOctober 11, 2016Heron WealthTrump, Presidential Election, Clinton, David EdwardsComment

Recapping the August Correction

Between May 21st and August 25th, US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 slid by 12.4%, leaving the index down 5.4% on the year and down 2.3% over the last year. A correction is defined as a slide of 10% or more, while a bear market is a decline of 20% or more.

Investing and MarketsDavid EdwardsSeptember 7, 2016Heron WealthAugust Correction, S&P 500, David EdwardsComment

Mid-year Review: Brexit, US Jobs, US election, S&P 500 Makes Record High

January 18th we wrote: "The US economy should grow at the middling rate of 2.5% in 2016, with unemployment hovering around 5% as more Americans rejoin the work force, and with inflation in the 0.5-1% range.

Markets Brace for Rocky Friday After UK Votes to Exit EuroZone

Defying consensus forecasts, UK citizens voted 52% to "Leave" vs 48% to "Remain" with a margin of 1.3 million out of 33.5 million votes cast. Urban voters favored "Remain" by 60/40, but rural voters voted substantially in the other direction

Investing and MarketsDavid EdwardsJune 24, 2016Heron WealthBrexit, Rocky Friday, David EdwardsComment

After the Storm, Smooth Sailing (But What About Hurricane Trump?)

We are entertained and informed by looking back at past commentaries to see how our forecasts turned out. What can we learn from predictions that were right (and those that were wrong)?

Can Trump Win the Presidency (and What Would That Mean for Stocks?)

After 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows: Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination), Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25, Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination), Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates).

On a Cruise Ship in a Storm, Anything but Smooth Sailing

Last week a New York Times reporter reported his experience from a Royal Caribbean cruise ship steaming from Bayonne, New Jersey to Cape Canaveral, Florida (full article).

Investing and MarketsDavid EdwardsFebruary 14, 2016Heron WealthInvesting, Sailing, David EdwardsComment

Answers & Observations