As we close out 2014 and look forward to 2015, let's review events nobody forecast in January 2014. This process keeps us humble, but also helps us think about opportunities for 2015.
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The cruise ship sank. The passengers are gathered in the lifeboat. The officer in charge knows how to reach safety, just over the horizon. If the passengers trust him, sit in their seats, pull on the oars and bail when necessary, all will make it home.
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US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 made 31 record highs in 2014, most recently on July 24th. Through Friday afternoon, stocks declined 3.3%, which is to say less than the decline of 4.2% we saw in April of this year, and decline of 5.6% in January.
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So far, a strange year where US stocks have surged or fallen violently daily for reasons having nothing to do with fundamentals in the US and everything to do with the daily pronouncement out of CNBC of whether the "risk trade is off or on." Luckily, we pay no attention to CNBC whatsoever.
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For months the financial media told investors to prepare for a 2008-9 financial meltdown and a return to recession conditions. We call this, "fighting the last war." The failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was a total surprise even to employees of the firm.
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On Friday, July 22nd, US stocks were within 1.4% of the high set for the year April 29th. Over the weekend, Republican Congressmen rejected a deal crafted between House Majority Leader John Boehner and President Obama.
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Why the US employment situation matters more than any other indicator right now. Once a month on the first Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the "Unemployment Situation" for the previous month.
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If you went off on safari in September 2008 and had no media contact until yesterday, a quick check of your portfolio and you'd conclude that nothing happened while you were gone.
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What to make of the last three months? Stocks hit a peak for the year on April 23rd with a YTD gain of 9.8%. Over the next 10 weeks, stocks fell 15.6%.
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US stocks lost 8.0% in the month of May, and dropped 1.5% on the year. European markets are down 0.2-8.4% YTD, and Asian and South American markets are down 1.4-11.2% on the year.
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The S&P 500 is up 8.5% YTD and matching the level last seen September 15th, 2008, the date that Lehman Brother filed for bankruptcy.
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The S&P 500 rallied 73.2% from the March 9th, 2008 low through the recent peak and declined 6.9% since January 19th. This is a normal correction and similar to the 7% decline we saw last June 15th-July 10th.
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On Tuesday, January 19th, US stocks reached the highest level since September 30th, 2008, a sixteen month high. For the rest of the week, stocks declined 5.1%, reminding investors of the dark winter of 2008-9, when stocks seemed prepared to drop to zero
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For 2009, the S&P 500 gained 26.5%, the Dow Industrials gained 22.7%, the NASDAQ gained a phenomenal 45.4% and Barclays Aggregate Bond index gained 6.1%.
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With less than 8 trading days remaining in 2009, we're pretty much sitting on our gains with our fingers crossed. About the only thing that could ruin our year at this point is a terrorist attack on the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree in New York City
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