January 18th we wrote: "The US economy should grow at the middling rate of 2.5% in 2016, with unemployment hovering around 5% as more Americans rejoin the work force, and with inflation in the 0.5-1% range.
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Defying consensus forecasts, UK citizens voted 52% to "Leave" vs 48% to "Remain" with a margin of 1.3 million out of 33.5 million votes cast. Urban voters favored "Remain" by 60/40, but rural voters voted substantially in the other direction
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We are entertained and informed by looking back at past commentaries to see how our forecasts turned out. What can we learn from predictions that were right (and those that were wrong)?
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After 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows: Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination), Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25, Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination), Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates).
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Last week a New York Times reporter reported his experience from a Royal Caribbean cruise ship steaming from Bayonne, New Jersey to Cape Canaveral, Florida (full article).
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A miserable start to the New Year, with US stocks down 7.9% in January, European markets down 7.4-11.4%, and Japan down 10.9%. The biggest declines are in Shanghai down 17.7% YTD and down 43.7% from an all-time high.
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With the United States & Europe mired in depression, newly elected US president Franklin D. Roosevelt. delivered these words in his first inaugural address:
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2015 was a year where asset allocation came up empty. Generally speaking, if we spread our clients' money across multiple assets classes, some will do better than others, generating positive returns no matter what.
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A night of horror in Paris, similar to attacks in Spain in 2004. London in 2005, Moscow in 2002, Mumbai in 2008, Boston in 2013, Oklahoma City in 1995, Columbine in 1999, the Munich Olympics in 1972.
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A very short bulletin as stocks settle into the close. The S&P 500 peaked September 18th at a record 2,011.18, but since fell 8.5%, which leaves the major average down 6.2% on the quarter and up just 1.6% on the year.
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Oh, somewhere in this favored land the sun is shining bright; the band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light, and somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout; but there is no joy in Mudville - mighty Casey has struck out.
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US stocked dropped 5.3% on the open with the Dow Industrials shedding 1089 points in 5 minutes. By mid day, the decline was a mere 0.9%.
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Last week, turmoil in Chinese stocks markets flowed into US markets, taking stocks down 6.1% for the month of August and down 3.0% on the year. We are taking NO action to rebalance accounts due to last week's pullback. Our clients' accounts are well positioned to ride out this storm.
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Events we expect for 2015. Commodity prices stabilize near current levels, start rising again; The US dollar rises another 15-20% against world currencies, then resumes a long term slide.
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Sony, JP Morgan Chase, Target, Home Depot attacked. Russian, Chinese, North Korean, stateless hackers blamed. Stories about identity theft, e-mail hacks, and elder abuse blanket the news.
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