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In January 2016, we projected that the S&P 500 would gain 5% for the year, but we noted we would revisit that estimate in July. In July, noting that an earnings recession among US corporations was coming to an end, we elevated our forecast to 10%. For the full year, the S&P 500 rose 12.0%, so close enough. Full details of US and world Indexes are here.
Read MoreIn April 2014, we wrote:With 0.0% of precincts reporting, CNN declares Hillary Clinton CNN the next president of the United States. Really? We haven't even gotten through the 2014 mid-term elections yet, yet campaigns (and the media circus that lives for campaigns) are already gearing up for 2016.
Read MoreThe media does not generally portray millennials in a positive light. This holds true for perceptions of the savings habits of millennials. Millennials are still seen as the generation living in mom's basement. Whether they are doing so because they are, in fact, diligently saving, or because they are "failure to launch” kids is not usually specified.
Read MoreFiveThirtyEight.com was the most conservative, forecasting an electoral split of 272-268 in favor of Clinton with a 66% probability of success. The mood among Republican operatives, even the candidate himself, was despondent. No candidate in modern electoral history who polled so badly post Labor Day had ever won.
Read MoreAt this point, everything that can possibly be said about this election has been said. Whether you dislike Trump more than Clinton, or dislike Clinton more than Trump, the horrible, miserable conclusion is just days away.
Read MoreWe last wrote a market commentary July 11th. Since then, we've had nothing to say as investors focus on the last stage of the US presidential election, excluding any other data points including the US employment situation, US corporate earnings, and US Fed Policy.
Read MoreForget about everything the media is saying about Millennials. The group born between the late 1970s and 1990s is anything but lazy - yes, I am referring to the young people who in many cases are still living at home with mom and dad.
Read MoreBetween May 21st and August 25th, US stocks as defined by the S&P 500 slid by 12.4%, leaving the index down 5.4% on the year and down 2.3% over the last year. A correction is defined as a slide of 10% or more, while a bear market is a decline of 20% or more.
Read MoreJanuary 18th we wrote: "The US economy should grow at the middling rate of 2.5% in 2016, with unemployment hovering around 5% as more Americans rejoin the work force, and with inflation in the 0.5-1% range.
Read MoreDefying consensus forecasts, UK citizens voted 52% to "Leave" vs 48% to "Remain" with a margin of 1.3 million out of 33.5 million votes cast. Urban voters favored "Remain" by 60/40, but rural voters voted substantially in the other direction
Read MoreWe are entertained and informed by looking back at past commentaries to see how our forecasts turned out. What can we learn from predictions that were right (and those that were wrong)?
Read MoreAfter 11 Republican, 6 Democratic debates, caucuses and primaries in 18 states, the delegate count for Republicans and Democrats is as follows: Trump 329 (1,237 needed to win nomination), Cruz 231, Rubio 110, Kasich 25, Clinton 1058 (including 458 super delegates, 2,383 needed to win nomination), Sanders 431 (including 22 super delegates).
Read MoreLast week a New York Times reporter reported his experience from a Royal Caribbean cruise ship steaming from Bayonne, New Jersey to Cape Canaveral, Florida (full article).
Read MoreA miserable start to the New Year, with US stocks down 7.9% in January, European markets down 7.4-11.4%, and Japan down 10.9%. The biggest declines are in Shanghai down 17.7% YTD and down 43.7% from an all-time high.
Read MoreWith the United States & Europe mired in depression, newly elected US president Franklin D. Roosevelt. delivered these words in his first inaugural address:
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