US stocks are 23.8% higher than last year's low October 3, and 92.6% above the March 9, 2009 low. The Dow Jones Industrial averages and S&P 500 are at levels last seen May 2008, before the financial crisis began in earnest.
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For months the financial media told investors to prepare for a 2008-9 financial meltdown and a return to recession conditions. We call this, "fighting the last war." The failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was a total surprise even to employees of the firm.
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Volatility returned to the US stock market in November. In the first week of the months, stocks surged 3.6% on the back of the first decent jobs report since May.
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The cruise ship left New York heading for Bermuda. A terrible storm has blown up. The seasick passengers are in their staterooms vomiting. "Is there anything that can be done to get out of these waves," they ask? "Nothing," says the captain. "We just have to drive through until we get to the other side.
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US stocks gained 8.9% in September (best September result in 71 years) and 11.3% for the quarter (5th best quarter of the last 10 years.) As stocks rise, our clients are actually becoming more fearful. "How," they ask, "are stocks still rising when the economic news is so bad!
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A client writes, "The talking heads have a million opinions and it seems as if no one has a clue!" Yup, that is the most succinct investment analysis we've seen all summer.
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What happened last week? The Dow Jones Industrial average gained and lost a total of 2,134 points for a net change on the week of down 175 points, or down 1.5%, which is not exactly the end of the world.
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On Friday, July 22nd, US stocks were within 1.4% of the high set for the year April 29th. Over the weekend, Republican Congressmen rejected a deal crafted between House Majority Leader John Boehner and President Obama.
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Just when we thought the market had set a low for 2011 (last Friday's close,) one more piece of bad news rocked US and world markets.
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Much churn but no progress in US stocks until the budget impasse is settled. The gist of the conflict is that Obama administration wants tax increases AND spending cuts to accomplish deficit reductions.
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US stocks approached the March 16th levels that marked the YTD low, and also the start of year values. Given that stocks peaked 6 weeks earlier with a YTD rise of 9.0%, our clients have called wondering if this slide marked the start of another financial meltdown.
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On February 18th David Edwards of our firm appeared on Bloomberg Radio's "The Hays Advantage" with Kathleen Hays. On that date, US stocks peaked at the highest levels of 2011, exactly doubling the 13 year low of March 9th, 2011.
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Why the US employment situation matters more than any other indicator right now. Once a month on the first Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the "Unemployment Situation" for the previous month.
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As the first 5 days of January go, so goes January! As January goes, so goes the year! That's the theory, anyway. US stocks gained 1.2% in the first week of the new year, on top of the 6.7% gained last month.
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All year long, a distinguished parade of experts soberly explained to investors why stocks were too risky
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