We are happy to say that Heron Financial Group | Wealth Advisors was not adversely affected by Hurricane Sandy. We are physically located on Manhattan Island in New York City, but not in low lying areas including all of South Manhattan.
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US stocks surge to the highest levels of 2012, just 7.1% below the October 2007 record high. The S&P 500 closed earlier today at the high for 2012, up 18.0%, handily exceeding our 2012 forecast of 12% gains.
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We have the pleasure of spending quite a bit of time among the "1 percenters" - American families whose annual income exceeds $500K. Our favorite cocktail party question this summer is: "Given everything you've heard recently, do you think the stock market is up or down this year?"
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So far, a strange year where US stocks have surged or fallen violently daily for reasons having nothing to do with fundamentals in the US and everything to do with the daily pronouncement out of CNBC of whether the "risk trade is off or on." Luckily, we pay no attention to CNBC whatsoever.
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On April 6th, just after US stocks touched a high for the year and climbed to within 10% of the all-time high set back in October 2007, we wrote: "The market will do one of three things over the rest of the year:
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US stocks traded in a narrow range for the month of April, closing with a loss of 0.63% in the S&P 500. Earnings and revenue growth were moderate but positive for Q1 2012, and are expected to accelerate as the year progresses.
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US stocks are 23.8% higher than last year's low October 3, and 92.6% above the March 9, 2009 low. The Dow Jones Industrial averages and S&P 500 are at levels last seen May 2008, before the financial crisis began in earnest.
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For months the financial media told investors to prepare for a 2008-9 financial meltdown and a return to recession conditions. We call this, "fighting the last war." The failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008 was a total surprise even to employees of the firm.
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Volatility returned to the US stock market in November. In the first week of the months, stocks surged 3.6% on the back of the first decent jobs report since May.
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The cruise ship left New York heading for Bermuda. A terrible storm has blown up. The seasick passengers are in their staterooms vomiting. "Is there anything that can be done to get out of these waves," they ask? "Nothing," says the captain. "We just have to drive through until we get to the other side.
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US stocks gained 8.9% in September (best September result in 71 years) and 11.3% for the quarter (5th best quarter of the last 10 years.) As stocks rise, our clients are actually becoming more fearful. "How," they ask, "are stocks still rising when the economic news is so bad!
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A client writes, "The talking heads have a million opinions and it seems as if no one has a clue!" Yup, that is the most succinct investment analysis we've seen all summer.
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What happened last week? The Dow Jones Industrial average gained and lost a total of 2,134 points for a net change on the week of down 175 points, or down 1.5%, which is not exactly the end of the world.
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On Friday, July 22nd, US stocks were within 1.4% of the high set for the year April 29th. Over the weekend, Republican Congressmen rejected a deal crafted between House Majority Leader John Boehner and President Obama.
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Just when we thought the market had set a low for 2011 (last Friday's close,) one more piece of bad news rocked US and world markets.
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