As a young corporate tax lawyer, I never gave a moment’s thought to portfolios — mine or anyone else’s. October 1987, found me with my head buried in the Tax Code, vaguely aware of market turbulence, blissfully unaware of the consequences.
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Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the Consumer Price Index reached 8.3% in April compared to last year. Year-over-year inflation rates have exceeded 5% for more than a year and exceeded 8% for the past three months.
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At present, the NASDAQ is in a bear market, down 22.7% from the last fall’s record level while the S&P 500 is in a correction, down 13.1% from the January record.
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Since Heron’s last webinar, it seems that things are going from bad to worse. For starters, do you see any clear indications that we’re heading into a bear market?
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In 1966, Economist Paul Samuelsson famously quipped, “The Stock Market Has Predicted Nine Of The Past Five Recessions” Updating Samuelsson's calculation through 2022, we see that the US stock market has correctly forecast 15 of the last 8 recessions.
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In my twenties forty years ago, I followed a precise checklist of the things that made a good life: Get a good education, get a good job, get married, start a family, buy a house, start a business, buy a vacation home. By age 50, I had done all those things – and was following step by the step the exact same path my father followed in his generation.
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This is the second anniversary of the first webinar I did in the middle of the pandemic. And boy, back then we didn't know anything. We didn't know how to work Zoom, we didn't know how to work remotely
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Giving away money is easy. But giving well is hard. Giving in a way that has a real, positive impact — even harder. As Dale Carnegie famously said, “It is more difficult to give money away intelligently than to earn it in the first place.”
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Inflation! Rising interest rates! Armies on the move in Ukraine! Growth stocks stumbling! All these factors made for a volatile start to 2022
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After waiting for the conclusion of the Beijing Winter Olympics to avoid offending Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of neighbor Ukraine earlier this morning.
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There is great value in not putting too much money on any single idea, trade, or investment. A risk management advisor taught me this at the very beginning of my career. Dividing capital into a minimum of 10, maybe 20, even 40 positions is the better route to take.
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David Edwards, President and Wealth Advisor and Buff Parham of Parham Associates presented a webinar Sunday, December 19th at 6PM EST.
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On Friday night at 11:30 PM, Congress voted in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021. This is a bill that received bipartisan Republican and Democratic support as early as August. But it took until November 5th for that bill to pass.
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We expect stocks to be volatile over the next 12 months as vaccine news develops — optimism over vaccine announcement buoys it, and pessimism about vaccine efficacy drags it. That will be uncomfortable, but in general, we expect stocks to be higher a year from now. By then, we’ll likely have taken tangible steps to recover from the pandemic, the economy will start to recover slowly, and earnings will rise as a result.
We’re starting to scale cash reserves back into stocks, and we’ll continue to do this through December and January. The only caveat is that if a client needs money for a house reconstruction or a big purchase of some kind, we’re keeping that in cash, not putting it in stocks.
But good news for the stock market is not good news for average Americans. There are still 10 million fewer Americans working today than in January of this year. The U.S. response to the pandemic is the still worst in the world. Daily mortality is up 75% over the last month to 2,000/day, and it will continue to soar through Thanksgiving, into Christmas, because the infection rate is triple what it was back in June.
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We’re cautiously optimistic that Joseph Biden beats Donald Trump, but we won’t know for sure until early in the morning on November 4th, possibly not until later in November or even early December if the election results are a lot closer than we expect.
Here are the critical elements we are watching leading into Tuesday, November 3rd.
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